ASML puts peak litho rumors to rest

Whispers of semiconductor lithography being past its prime have haunted ASML over the past few months. “I think it’s time for investors to accept the decade of lithography is over,” investor blog Fabricated Knowledge wrote following ASML’s rather disappointing Q3 results. “Lithography spending will grow slower in the next decade than [the wafer fab equipment market overall].” According to a recent projection by Yole Group, WFE shipments (in dollars) are expected to grow with a 4.7-percent CAGR in the 2023-2029 timeframe. Not quite the double-digit growth rate ASML has grown accustomed to.

Naturally, ASML wanted to address these fears at its highly anticipated 2024 Investor Day, held on 14 November in Veldhoven. In fact, one could argue the entire afternoon was structured around debunking the peak lithography story, with most time dedicated to discussing EUV lithography. After all, if lithography intensity has peaked, that would show up first of all in EUV sales. Centering around the EUV theme may also have had the side-effect of steering away the conversation from China and export curbs, two intertwined topics that didn’t even come up for a change.