Market research firm Future Horizons has reiterated its prediction that the semiconductor industry’s current upcycle is running on its last legs. Chief fortune teller Malcolm Penn expects the IC market to drop 22 percent, Electronics Weekly reports. “The slowdown is inevitable, the magnitude of it depends on the timing,” says Penn. “Unit shipments will plummet first, then ASPs will collapse.”
Penn explains that the notorious cyclicality in the semiconductor industry is the result of a lack of collaboration between silicon suppliers and customers. The latter always get their forecasting wrong, causing a constant imbalance in demand and supply. A solution would be to share (financial) responsibility for capacity additions, but there seems to be very little interest to pursue that path.