The Dutch government has published more information on upcoming restrictions on the export of semiconductor equipment (link in Dutch). These new export controls focus on advanced chip manufacturing technology, including the most advanced deposition and immersion lithography tools. As a result, ASML will need to apply for export licenses for the shipment of the most advanced immersion DUV systems. It will take time for the new controls to be translated into legislation and take effect.
Based on the announcement, the company’s expectation of the Dutch government’s licensing policy and the current market situation, ASML doesn’t expect the measures to have a material effect on its financial outlook for 2023 or longer-term scenarios. In a press statement, it points out that it’s important to consider that the additional export controls do not pertain to all immersion lithography tools but only to what’s called “most advanced.” Although the company hasn’t received any additional information about the exact definition of “most advanced,” it interprets this as ‘critical immersion,’ which it defines as the Twinscan NXT:2000i and subsequent immersion systems. In addition, ASML notes that customers that are primarily focused on the mature nodes are well served with less advanced immersion lithography tools. And finally, the longer-term scenarios are primarily based on global secular demand and technology trends, rather than on detailed location assumptions.