Incapability maturity model
Software development could be considered a relatively new engineering activity. But, more and more, I’m starting to realize that the new kid on the block has grown up. It can even bring its insights to the main world. Concepts like Agile development, Shift Left, and the classic notion of the Capability Maturity Model (CMM) are well-known in the software industry but have applicability outside it as well.
Take CMM. It aims to improve existing software development processes, but it can also be applied elsewhere. It helps organizations to step by step grow their processes from an initial maturity level (chaotic, ad hoc, individual heroics) to a five (efficient). The model provides a structured way to gain control over the processes.
Recently, during an interesting discussion about the energy transition, it dawned on me that we’re level 1, with many ad-hoc measures and individual initiatives. Think of the replacement of fuel with electricity for transportation and at the same time shutting down the nuclear plants in Germany. The current collapse of our energy grid due to net congestion reads like a script from a Hollywood movie, in which a perfect storm of economic, engineering and manpower restrictions meet.
The energy transition is a massive change in how we run the technological basis of our society. By ignoring facts, most discussions become rather immature. I suspect not with bad intentions – it could be an example of number numbness. This concept was explained in an article written more than 40 years ago by Douglas Hofstadter, originally in Scientific American (in May 1982). There, he explains that, generally speaking, people have difficulties with interpreting large numbers and their feelings about numbers. A million, a trillion, a gigawatt, a terawatt – they all seem ‘huge’ and therefore the same. Restricting the power of vacuum cleaners but continuing to fly planes is a result of failing to comprehend what numbers in the energy transition mean.
So, how do we proceed? A good guide on number numbness with a focus on the energy transition was written by David MacKay (1967-2016). This British physicist wrote “Sustainability without the hot air”, in which he brings order to the number chaos. It’s a very good attempt to balance the overall energy usage and the (sustainable) production. “The book is intended to be accessible to everyone who can add, multiply and divide. It’s especially aimed at our dear elected and unelected representatives, the Members of Parliament.”
In his work, MacKay compares (sustainable) energy generation options and the (reduction) in energy consumption based on physics (and not wishful thinking). His goal is to understand if and how our modern society can function on pure renewables and what would be required to implement it. Spoiler alert: it’s possible but comes with a huge effort and price.
The book, available as open source as well as print, is a must-read for everybody who takes the energy transition seriously. And for people who refuse to consider the facts, we should add negative levels to the maturity models. Or introduce an incapability maturity model.
