Semicon equipment sales to climb 16 percent in 2025, says Semi

Semi forecasts that global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reach 131 billion (+16 percent year-on-year) and 139 billion dollars (+6 percent YoY) in 2025 and 2026 respectively, up from a projected 113 billion dollars this year. The growth is supported by both the front-end and back-end segments. “Since our July 2024 forecast, the outlook for 2024 semiconductor equipment sales has brightened, especially with stronger-than-expected investments from China and in AI-related sectors. Together with our forecast extension through 2026, it highlights the robust growth drivers across segments, applications and regions,” says Semi CEO Ajit Manocha.

After registering a record 96 billion dollars in sales last year, the wafer fab equipment (WFE) segment, which includes wafer processing, mask/reticle and fab facilities equipment, is projected to grow 5.4 percent to 101 billion dollars in 2024. This marks an increase from the previously forecast of 98 billion dollars in Semi’s 2024 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast. The upward revision mainly reflects the ongoing strong equipment investments in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by artificial intelligence (AI) computing. Additionally, China’s investments continue to play a significant role in the WFE market expansion. Looking ahead, WFE sales are projected to expand 6.8 percent in 2025 and 14 percent in 2026, reaching 123 billion dollars due to increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications.

Following two years of contraction, the back-end equipment segment in 2024 saw a strong recovery in particular in the second half of the year. Sales of semiconductor test equipment are projected to rise 13.8 percent to 7.1 billion dollars in 2024, while assembly and packaging (A&P) equipment sales are projected to increase 22.6 percent to 4.9 billion dollars. Furthermore, the back-end segment growth is expected to accelerate, with test equipment sales surging 14.7 percent in 2025 and 18.6 percent in 2026, respectively, while A&P sales are forecast to grow 16 percent in 2025 followed by 23.5 percent expansion in 2026. The back-end growth is supported by the increasing complexity of semiconductor devices for high-performance computing and the expected increase in demand in the mobile, automotive and industrial end markets.

The sales of WFE for foundry and logic applications are expected to remain flat year-on-year at 58.6 billion dollars in 2024, supported by resilient spending in mature nodes. The segment is forecast to see 2.8 percent growth in 2025 and to increase 15 percent to 69.3 billion dollars in 2026, driven by increasing demand for leading-edge technology, the introduction of new device architectures including the transition to gate-all-around (GAA) and increased capacity expansion purchases.

Memory-related capital expenditures are projected to see significant increases through 2026 supported by increasing demand for HBM for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration. NAND equipment sales are expected to remain relatively soft in 2024, growing 0.7 percent to 9.3 billion dollars as supply and demand continues to normalize, setting the stage for a 47.8 percent expansion to 13.7 billion dollars in 2025 and 9.7 percent growth to 15.1 billion dollars in 2026. Meanwhile, DRAM equipment sales are projected to see robust growth of 35.3 percent to 18.8 billion dollars in 2024, followed by 10.4 percent and 6.2 percent year-on-year growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively.