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China’s chip autarky ambitions drive mature-IC capacity growth
All those tools Chinese chipmakers have received from ASML over the past year or two are starting to come online. Trendforce predicts that Chinese foundries are set to drive the bulk of mature process capacity growth in 2025 even as that market segment is experiencing “only a moderate recovery.” Driving the growth in China are domestic IC substitution policies, ie the country’s efforts to cut reliance on semiconductor imports. The highest increases will be seen in 28/22nm production.
Currently, average capacity utilization in the mature segment is below 80 percent, with an expected 5-10 percentage point increase in the second half of the year over the first six months. A recovery in consumer electronics and server markets next year may start driving utilization rates in mature process capacity, though Trendforce stresses that the outlook for 2025 is still uncertain on concerns about the global economic outlook and China’s recovery.
Even as chipmakers outside China, including TSMC, are also planning capacity expansions as part of geopolitical diversification efforts, the Chinese foundries’ share of mature process capacity among the top 10 is expected to grow beyond 25 percent by the end of 2025. Total capacity growth for this group is projected to be 6 percent year-over-year.